Kajian Kerentanan Ekonomi Indonesia terhadap Pandemi COVID-19





economic vulnerability index, COVID-19, economic contraction


The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious problem for the economies of many countries, including Indonesia. Low specimen testing capacity, causing uncontrolled transmission. The Indonesian economy is faced with a recession. The economic vulnerability to the COVID-19 pandemic needs attention as a basis for making the right policies. This study aims to build an economic vulnerability index to COVID-19 and map the vulnerability of the regional economy to form priority groups for economic policies. This index consists of two dimensions: exposure and shock. It was found that the score for Indonesia’s economic vulnerability index to COVID-19 reached 56,58. Provinces in Java Island tend to have high economic vulnerability, especially DKI Jakarta. Furthermore, the economic vulnerability index has a significant negative relationship with the GRDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2020. Through quadrant analysis, four priority groups were obtained. Priority I consist of DKI Jakarta, Banten, West Java, Bali and DI Yogyakarta which need more attention because of high possibility of shocks and structurally more exposed to the economic impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic shocks.


Bhinadi, A. (2003). Disparitas Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Jawa dan Luar Jawa. Ekonomi Pembangunan, 8(1), 39–48. http://journal.uii.ac.id/JEP/article/view/638

Bloom, D. E., Cadarette, D., & Sevilla, J. P. (2018). New and resurgent infectious diseases can have far-reaching economic repercussions. Finance & Development, 55(2), 46–49. http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=lhh&AN=20183229978&site=ehost-live&scope=site%0Ahttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2018/06/pdf/fd0618.pdf

BPS. (2020a). Perkembangan Indeks Harga Konsumen/Inflasi. In Berita Resmi Statistik (Issue No. 58/08/Th. XXIII). https://www.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2020/01/02/1649/desember-2019-inflasi-sebesar-0-34-persen--inflasi-tertinggi-terjadi-di-batam-sebesar-1-28-persen-.html

BPS. (2020b). Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Triwulan II-2020. In Berita Resmi Statistik (Issue No. 64/08/Th. XXIII). https://www.bps.go.id/pressrelease/download.html?nrbvfeve=MTczNw%3D%3D&sdfs=ldjfdifsdjkfahi&twoadfnoarfeauf=MjAyMC0wOC0zMSAxOTo1NzoxNQ%3D%3D

Cariolle, J. (2010). The Economic Vulnerability Index: 2010 Updaate. March 2011. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3508/32c7a5cd0da89342f2a5a8e109ede3d4763d.pdf

Case, K. E., & Fair, R. C. (2007). Prinsip-Prinsip Ekonomi (Edisi Dela). Penerbit Erlangga.

Davradakis, E., Santos, R., Zwart, S., & Marchitto, B. (2020). The EIB COVID-19 economic vulnerability index. https://www.eib.org/attachments/thematic/the_eib_covid-19_economic_vulnerability_index_en.pdf

Feindouno, S., & Goujon, M. (2016). The Retrospective Economic Vulnerability Index (Issue No. 147). https://ferdi.fr/dl/df-AboGKbonGun6wvceDkpVKxFj/ferdi-p147-the-retrospective-economic-vulnerability-index-2015-update.pdf

Grenfell, R., & Drew, T. (2020). Here’s Why It’s Taking So Long to Develop a Vaccine For The New Coronavirus. Science Alert. https://www.sciencealert.com/who-says-a-coronavirus-vaccine-is-18-months-away. Accessed August 30, 2020

Guillaumont, P. (2009). An economic vulnerability index: Its design and use for international development policy. Oxford Development Studies, 37(3), 193–228. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600810903089901

Guillaumont, P. (2011). The concept of structural economic vulnerability and its relevance for the identification of the Least Developed Countries and other purposes (Nature, measurement, and evolution). Economic & Social Affairs.

IPCC. (2001). Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken, & K. S. White (eds.)). Cambridge University Press. https://library.harvard.edu/collections/ipcc/docs/27_WGIITAR_FINAL.pdf

Mankiw, N. G. (2007). Makroekonomi,(Edisi 6). Jakarta: Erlangga.

Manusubroto, W., Wicaksono, A. S., Tamba, D. A., Sudiharto, P., Pramusinto, H., Hartanto, R. A., & Basuki, E. (2020). Neurosurgery Services in Dr. Sardjito General Hospital, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Experience from a Developing Country. World Neurosurgery. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wneu.2020.05.124

OECD. (2008). Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. https://doi.org/10.1111/jgs.13392

Suhartono, H. (2020). Indonesia ramps up virus testing asnew infections surge. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/indonesia-a-hidden-virus-hotspot-with-new-infections-surging. Accessed August 29, 2020.

Sukwika, T. (2018). Peran Pembangunan Infrastruktur terhadap Ketimpangan Ekonomi Antarwilayah di Indonesia. Jurnal Wilayah Dan Lingkungan, 6(2), 115–130. https://doi.org/10.14710/jwl.6.2.115-130

WFP. (2020). Nepal COVID - 19 Economic Vulnerability Index (Issue July). https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000117595/download/?_ga=2.235432257.1989027160.1598771811-690871223.1598398159

White, A. I. R. (2020). Historical linkages: epidemic threat, economic risk, and xenophobia. The Lancet, 395(10232), 1250–1251. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30737-6

WHO. (2020). Weekly operational update on COVID-19 - August 28 2020. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/wou-28-august-approved.pdf?sfvrsn=d9e49c20_2

WHO Indonesia. (2020). Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report -22. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/searo/indonesia/external-situation-report-22-26-aug2020.pdf?sfvrsn=c1013c5b_2

Worldometers. (2020). Report Coronavirus Case. Worldometers. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

Wotld Bank. (2020). Global Economic Prospects, June 2020. (Issue June). https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1553-9

Yu, X., & Yang, R. (2020). COVID-19 transmission through asymptomatic carriers is a challenge to containment. In Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses. https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12743